tl;dr
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between profit-taking whales and long-term holders, causing the market to drift lower after reaching an all-time high of $123,300 on July 14. This pullback represents the third major wave of whale selling since mid-2024, with miners also selling signifi...
Bitcoin is currently caught in a tug-of-war between profit-taking whales and long-term holders, a dynamic that could influence the market for months ahead. After reaching a record high of $123,300 on July 14, the crypto market has drifted lower, awaiting a fresh catalyst to drive prices upward again.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights this pullback as the third major wave of whale profit-taking since mid-2024. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, both “old and new whales” have been behind the selling pressure, a reminder of how influential these large holders are in driving market movements. Interestingly, the selling was not limited to whales; miners sold about 15,000 BTC right after the new all-time high, signaling an institutional response aimed at de-risking amid forecasts of a challenging third quarter.
This phase of market “cooling” is typical of mature bull cycles and matches Bitcoin’s historical pattern of minimal median returns in Q3. Market participants seem to be bracing for volatility, with options traders purchasing put options at $80,000, $95,000, and $100,000 strikes for August and September, positioning for a potential 10-30% price drop in the near term.
Despite short-term bearish sentiment, Charles Edwards of Capriole Fund views Bitcoin as “undervalued” based on his Energy Value model, which ties the cryptocurrency’s intrinsic worth to the energy consumption of its mining network. This suggests the current price might be below its fundamental value, hinting at upside potential.
Looking beyond Q3, CryptoQuant anticipates renewed accumulation and a breakout leading to new all-time highs. Historical trends back this optimism, with Bitcoin’s fourth quarter typically yielding the strongest returns, boasting a median gain of 52%. This sets the stage for a compelling battle between cautious sellers and bullish holders eager to drive the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally.