tl;dr
Analyst Willy Woo has exited his Bitcoin position and issued a warning based on signals similar to the 2013 bearish divergence. He highlighted that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score indicates a potential downtrend, with bearish divergences not seen since 2013. Woo explained his sale was a strategic shift to ri...
Analyst Willy Woo has announced that he has exited his Bitcoin position and is issuing a warning based on signals reminiscent of the 2013 bearish divergence. Woo highlighted to his 1.2 million followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score is currently indicating a potential downtrend. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the value of each coin the last time it was transacted, helps gauge whether Bitcoin is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued.
Woo explains that the MVRV Z-score tracks how Bitcoin is valued relative to the capital invested. He pointed out that this cycle shows more bearish divergences that have not been seen since the 2013 double top episode. A bearish divergence occurs when Bitcoin’s price hits higher highs, but the MVRV Z-score forms lower highs—signaling potential weakness.
When questioned about his decision to sell Bitcoin, Woo clarified that it was part of a strategic rotation toward riskier assets connected to the infrastructure supporting Bitcoin, often referred to as the picks and shovels behind BTC. He noted that this move was also tailored to his personal situation rather than a wholesale exit from Bitcoin itself and promised further insights in upcoming podcasts.
Another notable observation from Woo is that Bitcoin’s current market dynamics are heavily influenced by investments from high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), differing significantly from earlier market cycles. He describes the prevailing market environment as a “whale phase” dominated by wealthy investors, with future capital inflows expected from retail investors but managed by large institutional gatekeepers such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $119,664, experiencing a slight decline over the past 24 hours.