tl;dr
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin could peak in the fourth quarter based on historical trends. He notes Bitcoin usually ends the third quarter after a halving event in the red, then rallies in the next quarter. Cowen outlines a pattern where Bitcoin rises in July and August, dip...
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach its peak in the fourth quarter if historical trends hold true. Speaking to his 917,000 YouTube subscribers, Cowen notes that Bitcoin typically finishes the third quarter following the halving event in the red, before rallying to its cycle top in the next quarter.
He describes a potential pattern where Bitcoin moves upward in July and August, then pulls back to the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) in September before rallying to the cycle high. According to Cowen, Bitcoin's bear markets often begin around the year of the US midterm elections, a historical trend that may influence its current cycle.
Discussing possible price targets, Cowen explains that after a September pullback to the 20-week SMA, Bitcoin has previously rallied by significant percentages: about 1,000% in one cycle and around 500% in another. In the most recent cycle, the rally was closer to 70%. If the 20-week SMA reaches near $110,000 as anticipated, subsequent rallies of 20%, 30%, or 40% could push Bitcoin to $131,000, $143,000, or $154,000 respectively. A 70% surge—like the last cycle—would imply a peak near $186,000.
Despite these projections, Cowen cautions that since Bitcoin has shown diminishing returns across cycles, hitting the $186,000 mark this time around might be challenging. His analysis provides a detailed roadmap grounded in historical price behaviors, offering investors insight into potential future movements of the crypto market.